Saturday, December 31, 2011

Climate Change Rhetoric - Communicating Uncertainty

With time the details have become blurry, but I still remember the anxiety I felt the first semester as a student at the University of Oslo. When I made the decision to move from the comfort of my parent's home on the countryside to the big unknown city of Oslo I had no idea what to expect. The uncertainty felt almost complete; Oslo was an urban environment that I had hardly ever visited, I didn't know a soul and I had never been to an university in my entire life. All I knew was that I wanted to become an astrophysicist. I made a life-changing decision based on very little information.

Some of us are willing to take bigger risk than others. In certain situations we have to make decision without knowing how big the risk is. All though it can be wonderfully exciting not knowing, the professional risk takers such as extreme sport athletes, stock traders or astronauts spend lots of time and energy on analyzing risk. That implies getting an idea of the uncertainty of the available information.

As illustrated by Sir Edmund Hillary, the first to reach the top of Mt Everest, acknowledging that you do not have exact information is an important part of risk management. Credit background image of Mt Everest: ddanforth

My decision-making was a personal one that only had an impact on me, my family and perhaps my closest friends. Decisions are being made on all levels in society implicating individuals, nations, regions and in some areas a number of decisions influence the entire planet.

Decisions related to climate change are ultimately and collectively global. The Earth is such a complex system that most of us realize that we do not have an overview of the risk our planetary management represent. We know that our information contains lots of uncertainty. Decisions based on anticipations of how climate will change in the future is high-risk business.

At the coming Rio +20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (20-22 June 2012) conference, our world leaders will make yet another attempt to agree on decisions related to our climate. Already 20 years ago, at the first Rio conference, further scientific knowledge and Earth observations were encouraged (Agenda 21) because that would improve the decision-making process. In the language of policy-maker that is 'making informed decisions'.

I will take a closer look at how the uncertainty of this in-demand information about climate change has been communicated and I'll be bold enough to suggest some improvements. In order to provide you with a wider perspective of the subject I'll start with describing how uncertainty is being managed in a couple of related areas.

Communicating uncertainty of natural hazards

Daily, millions of decisions around the world are being made based on uncertain scientific information. Meteorological forecasts are good examples of such information. Take for example tornados; tornados are generally thought of as completely unpredictable, but modern site-specific forecasts are today able to keep people informed well ahead of a tornado and provide enough time for them to take shelter. These meteorological forecasts, be it the regular and daily weather forecasts, the occasional tornadoes or the seasonal hurricanes, all include estimates of uncertainty. Yet, we make all sorts of important to trivial decisions based on this information. While the current information is considered acceptable and actionable, scientists are relentlessly continuing their work on expanding our knowledge, reducing uncertainty as well as finding better ways of estimating and managing the uncertainty. It is all an integral part of operational services.

The author spoke with Prof. Seth Stein (Northwestern University, USA) at the European Science Foundation-COST High-Level Research Conference Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Disaster Risk Management Cycle.” November 2011. Prof. Stein articulates the need of communicating uncertainty connected to hazard maps.

Climate change is a natural hazard

Climate change is a slow natural hazard and as such in principle both easier and more difficult to manage than fast natural hazards like earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic eruptions. It is easier because we have more time to prepare ourselves for the change and mitigate its effects. It is more difficult to manage because it is so slow its effects escape our attention and we do not feel the same urgency to act.

Although the disaster risk management system is well established, addressing uncertainty is in its infancy within the fast natural hazards community. (IUGG resolution 2010 and 2005?) Prof. Stein recommend that we accept that hazard maps are “living documents” that need to be continuously improved and updated. One way of improving the maps is to increasingly use empirical data suchusing a combination of statistical and empirical ( such as validation, and assimilation of Earth observation data) approaches in the production process. Concerning management of uncertainty in hazard maps, Prof. Stein points to the IPCC's systematic way of handling uncertainty and suggests a similar approach within his field of seismic hazards.

Illustration: Risk management circle/disaster management. Pointing out where the evaluation of uncertainty goes in.

IPCC and uncertainty

Trying to look into the future development of climate, we use climate projections based on various climate models. These models and derived climate projections contains uncertainties. The IPCC addresses this issue in their guidelines for both AR3, AR4 and the latest for the coming AR5 were published 2010. However, not everybody find this satisfactory.

Climate scientist Prof. Judith Curry is voicing concerns about the way uncertainty is treated by climate scientists, in particular by the IPCC . She has written several articles on the subject arguing that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which she warns can lead to misleading overconfidence. Curry suggests that a concerted effort by the IPCC is nescessary to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem including exploring and characterizing uncertainty. She also finds that we need to eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself. Members of the IPCC working groups have responded to Curry's suggestions and views and you'll find that the temperature of the scientific discussion is hot, making it exitingly interesting to follow. (Several links are at the end of this article if you are interested, for instance a special issue in the journal Climate Change published by Springer.)

Different kinds of uncertainty

Back in my early twenties, before I made my decision to become an astrophysicist and study in Oslo, I collected as much information as possible, but found almost nothing. I knew that I knew very little. In fact I knew that I would meet challenges that I did not even know existed, yet I made the decision. But I was prepared for the unknown uncertain future.

We all have a notion of what uncertainty is and have strategies to manage it. When we discuss uncertainty in a scientific context it is practical to distinguish between different kinds of uncertainty. We do not want to compare apples and pears. Take the Earth observations from space for instance. The processes to quality check, validate and calibrate are well defined and an integral part of the activity itself reducing the uncertainty both of the operations and the resulting observations. Meticulously designed and correctly performed experiments can be flawed just because of a malfunctioning cable, as we saw with the OPERA experiment at CERN. At a first glance the experiment seemed to have proven Einstein wrong and that it was possible to travel faster than light.

In addition to uncertainty related to human and instrumental errors we can group uncertainty in two categories: aleatory and epistemic. Epistemic uncertainty is associated with imperfections of knowledge, which may be reduced by further research and empirical investigation. Aleatory uncertainty is associated with inherent variability or randomness. When constructing climate models there will be epistemic uncertainty because we do not know if we have included all physical processes correctly, or all of them. Testing the climate models with observed data includes aleatory uncertainty.

Including information about uncertainty will definitely make the information more actionable for decision makers and then an important question is; how is uncertainty communicated outside the scientific community?

Climate change communication at American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2011

Communicating climate change is still a hot topic and I suspect will remain so in the foreseeable future. At the 2011 AGU Fall meeting the program was packed with presentations, workshops and other meetings addressing climate change. Although communicating the science of climate change is gaining attention, the rhetoric and general approach remain the same. The simplified message (in this rhetoric) is: we know the planet is in peril because of human activity and we need to act with great urgency. And fossil fuel is (the evil) to blame. I must admit I was a bit disappointed to see that even in the Town Hall meeting with the title “Directions in Climate Change Education and Communication” this same message was repeated – again and again. What is wrong with this rhetoric then?

Below you'll find a few more examples that show how the scientific community struggles to find ways to communicate scientific knowledge that include information about uncertainty in a way that is trusted, understood and accepted for decision-making.

The “Because I say so” argument

As a child I hated it when my parents tried to pull a “because I say so” argument on me. It just wasn't a valid argument, I thought. Unlike me, who respected my parent's authority, society does not even trust climate scientists, or any other experts, saying “because I say so”. Their authority is no longer recognized. This phenomena is illustrated by for instance the debate we had in connection with the so-called Climategate. Yet, the communication strategies often include arguments (rhetoric) like: 97 % of scientists agree that there is global warming. It doesn't matter what people we do not trust agree on. This authoritative “because I say so” rhetoric didn't work on me as a child nor does it work on our modern society. Whether we like the scientists loss of authority or not, it would be wise to develop a new rhetoric that takes this new reality into account.

Endorsing scientific facts by voting – IUGG and AGU

As a Norwegian delegate to the IUGG Council meeting in Perugia, Italy in 2007, I was asked to vote on a resolution concerning climate change The Urgency of addressing Climate Change. In this resolution it said: “ ...that human activities are the primary cause of the recent climate change...” with reference to the IPCC and other national and international bodies. It was a reinforcement and endorsement of the IPCC report by a body comprised of members with various background.

As a scientist I felt uncomfortable with this process, finding it to lack scientific foundation within the body I was a member of.

In its position statement Human Impact on Climate, AGU states: The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. That is a very bold statement approved by the AGU Council twice; in 2003 and 2007. The boldness in this particular statement lies in claiming that the climate is out of balance. Whereas claiming that the planet is warming can be supported by Earth observations, the balance question is highly speculative depending on modeling of the complex Earth system that are far from precise nor certain, and certainly cannot be supported by scientific proof or Earth observations for that matter. We can suspect and fear that the climate is out of balance, it is a reasonable hypothesis, but we cannot claim that this is a fact based on todays evidence. It is definitely not a matter that can be decided by voting.

As in the case with IUGG, the AGU Council is comprised of people with different background and competencies, voting for or against statements (hypotheses). Voting is not an element in a scientific method and therefore undermines the credibility of the entire scientific community.

Change of rhetoric

Rhetoric is the art of discourse, an art that aims to improve the facility of speakers or writers who attempt to inform, persuade, or motivate particular audiences in specific situations.

We are the most persuasive when we are found to be trustworthy and appeal to people's feelings. The current climate rhetoric might be efficient in a wake-up call phase. Al Gore with his “An inconvenient truth” wanted to scare us a bit and succeeded with that. As I already pointed out, the public no longer place the same trust in scientists as in earlier times. The scientific community need to work on re-establishing trust. The current rhetoric is also focusing too much on negative feelings or scaremongering. Even though we might find delight in being scared from time to time, it is not effective in the long run. We need to evoke more positive feelings in the population.

In his award winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore showed us what sea level rise would do to Manhatten, NY in USA. This unrealistic image can easily backfire when science based scenarios show much less dramatic effects.

Both the IUGG and IPCC do address uncertainty connected to climate change, but unfortunately they have not found a successful way of communicating it. By omitting or not fully inform about uncertainties, the messengers trustworthiness is at stake.

Reducing and managing uncertainty

Better access to and increased use of climate data will help reduce uncertainty and improve our understanding of climate change. Following recommendations from the UNFCC meetings, the Group of Earth Observation has worked since 2005 on implementing a Global Earth Observation System of Systems that will make data available in an interoperable way through a data portal.

Showing the carrot, hiding the whip.

In a positive environment it will be easier to communicate the uncertainty. Out starting point is more often than not, that the meteorologists do has best as they can.

In order to engage the science and technology communities in the development and use of GEO, GEO made a Science & Technology Roadmap. Among many activities in this roadmap we find the building a “GEO label” to recognise the scientific relevance, quality, acceptance and societal needs for activities in support of GEOSS. Labeling and certification are generally tools that we use to create trustworthiness and traceability. In this respect a GEO label can also function as a framework for managing uncertainty related to Earth observations

No matter how well we know the uncertainty connected to climate change or how well it is communicated to the various decision-makers, we as a society will continue to do exactly as I did when I made the choice of becoming an astrophysicist; making a decision. What do we have to loose to be aware of how good the basis for our decisions are?

About the author: Bente Lilja Bye owns BLB, a company that translates and transforms scientific knowledge for societal benefits. She is an astrophysicist that for the last decade has worked in the geosciences. Her involvement in GEO started in 2004 when she served as Research Director at the Norwegian Mapping Authority. BLB is a partner in the EU-project Egida, supporting the implementation of GEOSS.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Antennae Assembly

Antennae Assembly

The Antennae galaxies are among my favorite astronomical objects. I have even given this blog the nick name 'Science Antenna' with a lovely portray of the - Antennae. I was of course delighted today, when I saw that ESO's new ALMA telescope chose to publish images of the elegant galaxies dancing as the first result - the inauguration of the most impressive and highest lying! telescope on this planet.

The object consist of two galaxies merging. As they are smashing together they create billions of new stars, mostly in groups and clusters of stars. You'll even find some super star clusters as a result of this collision.

I will celebrate these events, the lovely collision AND the inauguration of ALMA, here with a series of images that I have collected over the years, starting with the latest - Antennae by ALMA! Enjoy!

Antennae Galaxies, NGC4038, NGC4039

Credit: ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO). Visible light image: the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope

The Hubble telescope registered the sharpest image of the Antennae galaxies until now. It is expected that a complete ALMA will provide much sharper images than today, so to better match these taken by Hubble.

Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration.

Antennae Galaxies as seen by around one third of the total 66 antennas comprising the ALMA telescope.


Antennae Galaxies as seen by around one third of the total 66 antennas comprising the ALMA telescope.

Credit: B. Saxton, (NRAO/AUI/NSF), ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO). Visible light image: the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope.

And now some other images of the Antennae Galaxies.

This is a composite image from the Chandra X-ray Observatory (blue), the Hubble Space Telescope (gold and brown), and the Spitzer Space Telescope (red).

Credit: NASA, ESA, SAO, CXC, JPL-Caltech, and STScI.

Credit: NRAO/AUI and J. Hibbard

Flying Carpet

Flying Carpet

Imagine a plastic version of this fish and you have the plastic flying carpet!

I knew it was just a matter of time before material scientists of our time rediscovered ancient Arabic knowledge. Carpets CAN fly! Duh! ;-)

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Colliding Galaxies - SU Transitions

SU Colliding With Its Users

Image Source,Photobucket Uploader Firefox Extension

Colliding Galaxies
by Hubble Legacy Archive, ESA, NASA
Arp 272

SU is going to make significant changes to their service, so much so it looses its main character all together. This means that I cannot make comments illustrated by visuals, like in this very post, communicating quite effectively across cultures and languages (at least overcoming some difficulties for those who do not master the English language to perfection). SU is on a colliding course with its own original idea - and more devastating, with its customers/users.

I do not see how I can maintain the interactions with my audience without the html I right now am using. The power of visuals seems unknown to those in power at SU.

For those who'd like to follow my discoveries on net, however reduced that will be compared to on this service, can join my circle at Google + and/or join my group Beyond Sustainability on Facebook

My more lengthy 'popular' science articles will still be published on Science 2.0. In fact there will be a weekly series of articles about Extreme Geohazards there starting next week.

I will continue to update my PlanetBye on Blogspot also, where you actually can find most of my posts here on SU + some more stuff.

Bente Lilja Bye aka Stellare



This looks like knitting - I think I will start on a sweater or something this some nano-knitting. :-)

Solar Flare

Solar Flare

In blue of course!!

Move Over!

Move Over!

Just the 'tiniest bit' can now be quantified. It means a femtoscale atomic displacement.

Atronomical Gold

Astronomical Gold

Neutron stars to blame?



Photobucket Pictures, Images and Photos

Totally awesome picture of the launching site for GRAIL - the instrument who'll look a bit closer at the moon.



Photo: nutmeg

The Moon & The Telephone

The Moon & The Telephone

Learn about a less known part of our science history - and be prepared for some sweet surprises.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Materials That Marvel

Materials That Marvel

Nanotechnology is absolutely fascinating.

Complex patterns in liquid crystals.
Above is an images that shows how the tiles in a liquid crystal can be of many different shapes and colors, forming periodic patterns of high complexity. On nano scales!

Pregnancy & Paleontology

Pregnancy & Paleontology

I just had to write that heading. Sort of an oxymoron; producing life when your so, so dead?! ;-)

Smoke Rings In Space

Smoke Rings In Space

Wh00t? No smoking bans in space? Must have been a glitch by the authorities...

Saturday, July 30, 2011

A Synchrotron Point Of View

A Synchrotron Point Of View

Oh, I so do not want to have my eyes hard x-rayed. However, the synchrotron radiation infrastructure in Grenoble comes in handy in improving eye operations. But, by the look of it, an eye combined with that huge installation, it seems terrifying, doesn't it? :-)

Monday, July 25, 2011

Grazing Cows and Galaxies

Grazing Cows and Galaxies

by Meteorologists! :-)

You know you have to read this story then.

One Million Years Without Sex

A Million Years Without Sex

If they can do it, you can...had you lived that long! ;-)

Your Brain - Artistic NeuroView

Your Brain - Artistic NeuroView

Dave Mosher has made an awesome collection of neuroscience art and presents it on SciAm! Lovely, Dave!


Happy Birthday, Neptune!

1 - ONE - whole year it is, then. :-)

Little Pony

Stellare's Little Pony

Inspired by Xineann

...time to be childish again...

Monday, July 4, 2011

4th Of July Celebrations Of Astronomical Proportions

4th Of July Celebrations Of Astronomical Proportions

The Crab Nebula was once SN1054 - a supernova that exploded on 4th of July. Hence the American Independence Day....Yes? ;-)

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Ulas The Quasar

Ulas The Quasar

The very distant one...

Evolution From A Brid Perspective

Evolution From A Bird Perspective

Norway - LIVE - Hurtigruten

Norway - LIVE!

Now - until 22. June 2011 - watch Norwegian coasts live. Includes midnight sun.

Shaping Your Brain

Shaping Your Brain

Exercise, exercise - that is what will make a difference. Dave is discussing what the internet (exerciise) does to children's brains...:-)

Is it dangerously addictive? And what is addiction, really?

Brain is a muscle just like any other muscle and obviously we need to use it to grow 'strong'. Addiction in the meaning training your brain for hours shouldn't cause any worries with respect to children playing on the computer. On the contrary, it is good news.

Addiction is just another word for being able to concentrate or focus for a long time. :-)

I would turn around the 'color' of this article and say that according to the latest science we see proof that training your brain actually works. :-)

Then again, contradicting myself, the fact that we can conclude opposing claims from the same experiment underline one of my frequently used arguments concerning neuroscience -and that is that just because we see physical changes in the brain, it doesn't enable us, by scientific methods, to conclude what that means in terms of behavior or emotional results.

Nøkken - The Neck

The Neck - The Water Spirit

So you do not believe in the Neck, do you? Well...if you believe in science I guess you should reconsider you convictions - those laser eyes are real, I'm telling you. :-)

Do not take my word for it, read about the Living Lasers here or here or even here. The Neck is just ONE application...

Look out for Noekken!

Living Laser

Living Laser

Hell, YEAH! :-)

Saturday, June 11, 2011

'Bugs' In Space

'Bugs' In Space!

Nah - just the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle mating for the last time...

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Water and Diamonds

Water and Diamonds

...and a synchrotron radiation facility.

All A Woman Can Wish For! ;-)

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Volcanic Eruptions: Ash Warnings and Aviation

Volcanic Eruptions - Ash Warnings and Aviation

Last week Iceland experienced yet another volcanic eruption when Grímsvötn beneath their biggest glacier Vatnajökull, started to spew out volcanic ash into the atmosphere. Several flights have been canceled but it is by far not so disruptive as last years Eyjafjallajökull who closed down the entire European airspace.

If you wonder how we use science in decision making and ash warning systems - I warn you it is compicated - you can read this article. I made a special graphics to facilitate the reading. But again, lots of stuff and complicated links here. Aviation in general require all this, so we should be all happy about it.

Trolls and Science

Trolls and Science

Communicating science can be a challenging task...;-)

Sapphire - From a Scientific Perspective

Sapphire - From A Scientific Perspective!

Credit: ESRF

What an excellent way to combine your interests in jewelry, physics and large installations!

X-ray your bling! :-)

Star Birth

Star Birth

Credit: ESA/Herschel/SPIRE/PACS/D. Arzoumanian (CEA Saclay) for the 'Gould Belt survey' Key Programme Consortium

Not surprisingly it appears in BLUE! ;-)

Apart from the obvious blue, there are more interesting reading here.

Space Is Music In My Ears

Space Is Music In My Ears

At least space will provide music in my ears if this project is implemented. I have paid for it to happen because I think the project itself is sooooo cool, and I like the idea that this is a regular citizen project.

You can pledge your support also, just like I did. With small and big money, it is you choice.

A detailed description of the budget - and the whole project can by fund via Fundraising for Science.

Update: The project is funded!

What Yuri Gagarin Saw

What Yuri Gagarin Saw

Credit: Nasa

12th of April 1961 Yuri Gagarin became the first human to ever get this fantastic view of our planet. It must have been magnificent. He did express his feelings (observations:-)) this way:

"I see Earth. It is so beautiful."

Still true, Yuri!

Congratulations Russia, with this extraordinary anniversary in our space history!

Sitting Duck

Sitting Duck?


Evidently not. This is a floating duck. Ready to reproduce according to this article...if the colors are bright enough, that is. :-)

It is spring, folks!

Thursday, April 7, 2011

April is Global Astronomy Month

April is Global Astronomy Month 2011

Image Source,Photobucket Uploader Firefox Extension

And what a lovely excuse to showcase yet another image of the lovely sisters - The Pleiades! See how nice and blue they all are. :-)

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Japan Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami - Measurements with Ny-Ålesund Super Conducting Gravimeter

Japan Tsunami Knock-out of Polar Instruments

Credit NOAA

Above you see the ocean wide tsunami wave propagation. It was not that kind of wave that knocked out the geodetic instrument situated close to the North Pole though. It was the gravitational consequences of all that mass movement, both the continental plates and the immense water body.

See the graphs from Ny-Ålesund here.

Algerian Abstract

Algerian Abstract

Image Source,Photobucket Uploader Firefox Extension

Credit: Nasa

This is actually a satellite image of Algeria consisting of multiple shots by Landsat 7. The reason why I post yet another of my own posts is that I have reasons to believe I inspired NASA to look at this image from a similar perspective, namely the arts perspective. This is their latest presentation of their own image - now with a caption and title referring to arts. :-) I'm just saying....;-)

Pain Relief in Pictures

Pain Relief In Pictures

No, I'm not referring to the sometimes fact that pretty pictures can make you forget pain. With the help of the extra, extra, super hard X-ray machine in Grenoble, we can actually (we reads the scientists who are experts on this) see how pain is handled by drugs. Pretty awesome, if you ask me. And I am just getting off my drugs after my visit to the dentist today. :-)

It's Gravitational!

It's Gravitational!

Look out for the waves! ;-)

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Space Mobilized for Japan

Space mobilized for Japan

Japan is well prepared for disasters, but this combined earthquake and tsunami is too much even for them. The international community has agreed to make their earth observation satellites available to governments in needs, like Japan right now, through the International Charter Space and Major Disasters. There will be satellite images based on various techniques available soon, also to the public. Right now, it is the specialist and crisis teams who use them.